Global Macro Commentary

Payrolls came out this morning slightly worse than the forecast; 663 jobs lost, with 8.5% unemployment rate – sounds pretty bad to me. Let’s analyze this in ?the simplest way: does this data signal any kind of recovery/rebound? NO (although the rate of increase in jobless claims may be decelerating? still too early to tell). For now, however, the logical thing to do is to sell stocks (and whatever rallied along with it). Indeed, I covered my AUD longs and used some of the profit to buy more gold around 900. I understand that gold has been a frustrating trade for gold bulls during the past month; it is no surprise that many gold bulls have exited the market. I’ve stubbornly maintained a large long position in gold, but I’ve been actively hedging it via long stocks, long crude, and recently, long AUD, all of which has kept my PA beta neutral (as my brother would say). It may seem like a dumb idea to buy gold right now, but then again, it’s also the best time to buy gold when everyone else is dumping it.