Global Macro Commentary

For every unemployment data release during the past 6 months, each of the previous month’s payroll number was revised much lower, allowing the BLS to (i) smooth out the overall decline in payrolls and (ii) keep the data release aligned with market expectations. While discussing March payrolls with a friend, it was noted that this week’s reversal of safe haven trades may not be such a surprise considering that recent economic data have been signaling a deceleration of the recession. Because March payrolls came out within market expectations, with no revision in February payrolls, one could argue that the rate of decline in payrolls has been slowing down, signaling a bottoming. BUT it turns out the folks at BLS sneaked in a SECOND revision in Jan payrolls: initially 598k revised to 655k, then revised this month to 741k. So net of revisions, March payrolls actually declined by 747k, showing no signs of a bottom.

From the BLS release: